Brazil’s presidential election will proceed to a second round on October 25, 2026, after right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro led incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round but failed to secure an outright majority.
With over 98.8% of votes counted from the October 4 election, Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, garnered approximately 47.2% of the vote. Current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a left-wing leader, received about 44.9%.
Under Brazilian electoral law, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates if no single candidate secures more than 50% of the votes in the first round. The upcoming October 25 vote will determine Brazil’s next president.
Before the first round, some public opinion polls had indicated Lula was ahead, but Flávio Bolsonaro ultimately secured the leading position. The votes cast for other candidates in the first round are now expected to be crucial in determining the outcome of the second round.
Following the vote, President Lula stated that the election represented a choice between democracy and “barbarity” for Brazil. Flávio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, emphasized that his primary goal was to “free the Brazilian people.”
Background to the election
Presidential elections in Brazil are held every four years. The 2022 presidential election saw Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeat Jair Bolsonaro. In January 2023, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro attacked government buildings in the capital in an attempt to overturn the 2022 election results.
Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year, three-month prison sentence for attempting to stage a coup after his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election. He is also banned from holding public office until 2060. Flávio Bolsonaro is continuing his father’s political legacy and has received his endorsement as a presidential candidate.
This election campaign has seen the economy, crime, corruption, and political stability emerge as key issues for the approximately 159 million eligible voters.
What’s next for Brazil
The second round of voting on October 25, 2026, will definitively decide Brazil’s next president. The newly elected president will have the opportunity to nominate ministers to the Supreme Court, as two or three ministers are set to retire in the coming year.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant amnesty to his father and his supporters involved in the January 2023 violent events if he is elected. Conversely, Lula has stated that if re-elected, he would implement deep political and judicial reforms, including setting term limits for Supreme Court ministers and establishing a new selection process for them.
The official and final results of the first round from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the country’s highest electoral body, have not yet been publicly announced with a specific date. The inauguration date for the new president also remains unknown. Furthermore, ongoing investigations into Flávio Bolsonaro for corruption and money laundering, and the truth behind Lula’s campaign allegations of US interference in Brazil’s internal politics, await further clarity.
