Strong El Niño expected to peak in December, raising extreme weather risks

A strong El Niño event is expected to peak around December 2026, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and flooding in various parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are likely to remain unusually high between October and December, increasing the probability of a powerful El Niño. Temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region were approximately 1.6 degrees Celsius above average in June and rose to about 2.5 degrees Celsius by August. They are projected to reach an average of up to 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal between October and December. If temperatures continue to rise in December, this event could become one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record.The WMO anticipates that El Niño will persist until February 2027. While some regions, including parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and coastal East Asia, could experience above-normal rainfall, below-normal rainfall is expected in the western Pacific and the Indian subcontinent. This reduced rainfall outlook for the Indian subcontinent could significantly affect agriculture, water resources, and related economic activities in South Asia.Nepal experienced below-average rainfall across most regions during the June-October monsoon of 2026. The country has already seen some impacts, with annual headline inflation rising from 2.4 percent in July 2026 to approximately 6 percent. Diesel prices in August 2026 were about 40 percent higher than the previous year and 25 percent above the five-year average. While most staple food prices remained stable in August compared to July, potato prices increased by 10 percent, rice by 9 percent annually, and mustard oil by 14 percent. Prices for rice, pulses, and mustard oil are 7 to 14 percent higher than the five-year average.Flooding and landslides in Rasuwa and Nuwakot districts in late August 2026 damaged over 1,800 hectares of crops, with paddy accounting for 1,700 hectares of the damage. Nuwakot alone saw 70 percent of its total crop yield affected.The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal’s government body for weather forecasting, stated on October 7, 2026, that most parts of Nepal are likely to experience rain and thunderstorms until Friday, with improved weather expected from Saturday. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini, and Sudurpashchim provinces. The Simlepani weather station in Arghakhanchi recorded 58.2 millimeters of rainfall.The Madhesh Province, often referred to as Nepal’s granary, is particularly vulnerable as it relies heavily on timely monsoon rains. The region faces increased climate stress and food insecurity due to droughts, declining groundwater levels, and altered monsoon patterns. Farmers report that critical rainfall often fails when needed, while hailstorms, floods, and heavy rains destroy crops during harvest. While irrigation from canals or deep boring is possible in some parts of the Tarai, the problem could be more severe in rain-fed hilly areas.The overall economic impact on agricultural production and the long-term effects on food security due to El Niño are still being studied. Specific data on the total reduction in monsoon rainfall for Nepal this year is not yet available, nor are detailed local forecasts for the extent of drought or heavy rainfall in specific regions. The impact on hydropower generation and public health (e.g., waterborne diseases, dengue) also remains largely unknown.