A deep low-pressure system that developed in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a powerful Cyclone Arnab and is advancing towards Nepal. This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and widespread snowfall across the country from Thursday (Kartik 12) to Saturday, according to the Meteorological Forecasting Division, a body under Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), India’s weather forecasting agency, confirmed that the system appeared as a cyclone on Monday (Kartik 9) at 5:30 AM Nepali time. Environmental and meteorologist Ujjwal Upadhyay stated that the system is likely to make landfall in the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha in India by Tuesday afternoon. Cyclone Arnab is projected to evolve into a powerful cyclonic storm by Tuesday midnight and an extremely severe cyclonic storm by Wednesday morning.
Risk of heavy rain and snowfall in Nepal
Meteorologists predict that Cyclone Arnab will reach Nepal by Wednesday night, with rainfall commencing on Thursday. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has also issued this information. According to meteorologist Upadhyay, special vigilance is advised for Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and eastern Lumbini provinces from Thursday afternoon until Friday night.
He noted the possibility of heavy rainfall in some areas and extensive snowfall in the Himalayan regions. Upadhyay indicated that average rainfall in Nepal could exceed 100 millimetres, with some valleys and gorges potentially receiving over 200 millimetres. He also highlighted a high risk of floods and landslides due to this system.
Special alert for Madhesh Province
As Cyclone Arnab is expected to impact Madhesh Province, residents there have been urged to exercise special caution. Meteorologist Upadhyay stated that heavy rainfall is anticipated in Madhesh Province from Thursday afternoon until Friday night.
The rainfall is predicted to affect Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and the eastern parts of Lumbini provinces. The Tarai region is also expected to experience significant rainfall, with a high probability of heavy rain in eastern Nepal, particularly north of Dhanusha and Mahottari.
Farmers advised to protect crops
With this period being crucial for harvesting and storing paddy, farmers have been advised to remain vigilant. Meteorologist Hariprasad Dahal suggested that farmers harvest and store ripe paddy and other crops in safe locations before the adverse weather begins, which is expected from Kartik 11 to 15 (BS).
Given the cyclone’s strength and energy, significant heavy rainfall and extensive snowfall are expected in some areas, potentially leading to substantial economic losses in the agricultural sector.
Sign of climate change
Monsoon completely withdrew from Nepal on October 14. However, the sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal, which is typically 26 degrees Celsius, has now reached 29 degrees. Experts consider the formation of three powerful low-pressure systems within a month, driven by abnormally high sea temperatures and the influence of ‘El Niño’, as a direct indicator of climate change.
Cyclone Arnab is estimated to cross the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast on Wednesday morning, where wind speeds could reach up to 125 kilometres per hour. A ‘red alert’ has been issued for six districts in Andhra Pradesh, and preparations for rescue and evacuation are underway due to the risk of heavy rainfall, rising sea levels, and inundation in coastal areas. The Odisha government has expressed concerns that the cyclone might make landfall somewhere between northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha on the afternoon of October 28.
The Meteorological Forecasting Division has urged the public to regularly monitor the latest weather bulletins and information and plan agricultural activities, travel, and tours accordingly.
Earlier coverage: Powerful cyclone in Bay of Bengal: Warning of rainfall and snowfall across Nepal from Kartik 11 to 15
