The misuse of artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear conflict are among 17 major threats to human existence this century, according to a report published in the medical journal The Lancet. Researchers concluded that these dangers could severely impact global public health and overall human well-being.
The report, originally from October 2022 and unveiled by The Lancet Commission at the World Health Summit in Berlin in 2026, warns that if these risks are not addressed promptly, people worldwide could lose tens of billions of years of healthy life due to illness, disability, and premature death. However, researchers noted that potential damage could be mitigated if global leaders take targeted and effective action.
Existential threats: AI and nuclear conflict
The Lancet report links two threats directly to the potential end of human existence: nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence. The use of nuclear weapons could lead to massive loss of life, destruction of health systems, and long-term environmental consequences. Similarly, researchers expressed concern about the potential for powerful AI systems to cause severe damage on a global scale.
The report estimates that the malicious use of AI could result in approximately 10.4 billion years of healthy life lost globally by 2100. This estimate is comparable to some other risks, such as naturally occurring pandemics and obesity. However, the report also notes significant disagreement among experts regarding the exact nature of the catastrophic events AI could cause globally. Researchers clarified that since there is limited direct historical data on AI-related risks, these estimates cannot be considered evidence-based at the same level as data related to obesity. Nuclear conflict is estimated to cause 9.4 billion years of healthy life lost.
Obesity and other major health challenges
The report identifies obesity as another significant global health challenge for the future. Available data indicates that the problem of overweight and obesity is increasing in all countries worldwide. It is estimated that by 2050, approximately 60 percent of adults and one-third of children globally could be overweight or obese. Obesity is linked to heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, and other chronic health problems.
Risks associated with obesity are projected to account for the highest loss among the 17 threats, with an estimated 23.1 billion years of healthy life lost by 2100. High-energy food consumption and reduced physical activity are significant contributing factors, which could place a long-term burden on individuals, families, and healthcare systems. Low educational attainment is projected to cause 16.1 billion years of healthy life lost, and income inequality 13.8 billion years.
The report also includes high blood pressure, smoking, and mental health problems in the major risk categories. Effective health policies, promotion of healthy lifestyles, timely disease identification, and access to treatment are essential for the prevention and control of these issues.
Global cooperation and trust are crucial
The report’s objective is not to rank the 17 threats but rather to protect future health and human existence by enhancing cooperation at international, regional, and national levels, according to an accompanying editorial. Natalia Kanem, former Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund and co-chair of The Lancet Commission, stated that recent global events have highlighted the importance of preparedness before a crisis. Responding only after a disaster strikes can incur significant economic, social, and human costs.
Kanem warned that existing inequalities mean vulnerable communities would bear the greatest burden of such global crises. She urged governments and communities to take decisive action now to build a healthy, peaceful, and secure future for coming generations. Professor Christopher J.L. Murray, co-chair of The Lancet Commission and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), emphasized the need for immediate action at the 2026 World Health Summit. The latest update to IHME’s Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study includes data up to 2023.
The report considers social trust a crucial foundation for risk reduction. Trust helps societies anticipate potential crises, mitigate damage, and adapt to change. Conversely, distrust can exacerbate risks and harm. Global cooperative leadership, crisis-resilient food systems, and the creation of a more equitable society are also identified as necessary aspects for confronting future challenges. The Lancet Commission aims to encourage governments to prepare for these global threats and take decisive steps to avoid worst-case scenarios.
